Demographic Research

In conjunction with PLS Market Analysis, LLC

Bobby Sumner Consulting (BSC) and PLS Market Analysis, LLC have extensive experience in demographic research for all senior living accommodations: Life Plan (CCRC) Communities, Active Adult Communities, Assisted Living and Memory Care.

To gain a preliminary understanding of the depth of the market and opportunity that each project holds, we typically propose to provide a scope of services for each community which includes identifying and providing basic information about the competition, evaluating household demographic data and conducting a preliminary market penetration rate analysis.

The following tasks would be performed as part of an engagement.

• Primary Market Area Definition

Working with the client, we define the primary market area (PMA) for each community by zip code based on our knowledge of natural and perceived boundaries in the area as well as our understanding of the movement of seniors when seeking senior living. Zip codes in the PMA will be displayed in a table and map. This will be the basis of the Census data used in the analysis.

• Demographic Analysis

We obtain and analyze demographic data for the current year and projected future year for each defined PMA for the following:

• Total households by income and age bracket (including median income)
• 75+ Households by income bracket with average annual change
• Age 75+ households’ home values with annual average change
• Age 75+ households’ net worth with annual average change

• Identify Existing and Planned Competitors

We identify the existing competitors within each PMA. This includes IL, AL and MC. For each competitor, we will determine the total number of residences by level of care, year opened, profit status, contract type (entrance fee or rental), and base starting prices for standard competitive residences( one-bedroom , two-bedroom and cottages) .

We also identify planned competition in the PMA and provide details (as available) related to total number of residences by level of care, owner/sponsor and amenities and start dates.

• Market Penetration Rate Analysis

We conduct a market and project penetration rate (MPR) analysis for the planned product and levels of care planned. This is done at an income level consistent with base pricing for each level of care in the PMA for the expected year of opening. We interpret this data according to industry standards using established benchmarks for market and project penetration rates. This enables us to determine the depth of the market for each project and will incorporate the level of existing and planned competition in the PMA.

DELIVERABLES

BSC offers two types of market research:

1. An abbreviated ‘Demographic Quick View’ look at the numbers. While the scope is limited (no visits to competition), the penetration rates will provide a 5,000-foot level look at your market. You can assess the degree of market risk you are willing to accept.
1. We provide a brief written report which will discuss the sufficiency of the market to support the project within 15 days from the commencement of the engagement.
2. Comprehensive Market Research (CMR) takes a deeper dive into the demographics to ascertain the viability of the market to support existing occupancy projections, a planned expansion or a greenfield community. The CMR also includes on-site visits to your community and identified competition. The analysis includes pricing on a cost per square foot basis compared to the competition and recommendations.
1. We provide a written report which will discuss the sufficiency of the market to support the project within 45 days from the commencement of the engagement.